Will the ‘Green Tsunami’ of Democratic Fundraising Translate to a ‘Blue Wave’ in the Senate?

Jaime Harrison, a Democrat challenging Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham in South Carolina, addresses a drive-in rally in North Charleston on Saturday. Source.

There are 35 Senate seats up for grabs in the November election. In order to retake the Senate and unseat the current Republican majority, Democrats need to flip four seats and hold the seats of the 47 current Democratic senators as well. In the third quarter of 2020, which ended on September 30, Democrats frequently out-fundraised and out-spent their Republican opponents in battleground states. As the election draws closer, Democrats now appear to be challenging Senate seats in red states that were traditionally thought to be Republican strongholds. Although the amount of money raised and spent does not equate to a victory, huge influxes of cash for Democratic candidates demonstrates clear support and vigor from voters.

There are several toss up Senate races, meaning that these races could still go either way. Prominent among these races is North Carolina, Iowa, Georgia, Montana, and South Carolina.  Competitors have poured hundreds of millions of dollars into each of these Senate. South Carolina Democrat Jaime Harrison raised $57 million during the third quarter fundraising period, which completely blew away previous fundraising records in the third quarter period by over $20 million. Harrison’s opponent Lindsey Graham managed to raise $28 million in the same third quarter. Additionally, Maine’s democratic challenger Sara Gideon raised $39.4 million compared to her opponent Susan Collin’s $8.3 million. Arizona Democrat Mark Kelley came in at $38.7 million and his Republican opponent Martha McSally measured up to $20.5 million. Democrats Harrison, Gideon, and Kelley all beat third quarter fundraising records previously set by Beto O’Rourke in 2018.

Even after the news of North Carolinian Democrat Cal Cunningham’s extramarital affair broke, the scandal had no major impact on his fundraising. After Cunningham acknowledged the affair, he still raised $4.1 million in the following two week period, compared to his quarantined Republican opponent Thom Tillis, who raised $1.5 million in the same time frame.

In Texas, Democrat challenger MJ Hegar out-fundraised incumbent John Cornyn by almost double in the third quarter with $14 million to Cornyn’s $7 million. Colorado Democrat and former Governor John Hickenlooper raised almost triple his Republican opponent Cory Gardner at $22.6 million to $7.8 million. Kansas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932, but Democrat Barbara Bollier raised $13.5 million compared to Republican Roger Marshall’s $2.9 million in the third quarter.

Beyond the toss up Senate races, there are several more states considered battlegrounds for the Presidential election. In the last few weeks, Democrats have funneled money to challenge formerly safe races. Key among these states are Texas, Colorado, Kansas, and Kentucky. Democrats were able to expand their scope into these new states due to large fundraising totals and Trump’s tumble in the polls throughout the summer and early fall. The GOP has been pushing back by turning to big donors, and rounding up $142 million from early September into October in order to contest Democratic spending.

After Ruth Bader Ginsberg’s death in September, Democrats raised $90 million in 28 hours via the Democratic fundraising platform ActBlue. There appears to be strong fundraising patterns for Democratic challengers facing key incumbent Republicans who pushed through confirmation hearings for Amy Coney Barrett. The Republican Senators who had flip-flopped on their promises concerning a new Supreme Court Justice after blocking Obama’s nomination in 2016 have been heavily out-fundraised. Notably, Lindsey Graham, chair of the Senate Judiciary committee pleaded for donations, saying “I’m getting overwhelmed, Help me. They’re killing me money wise,” after Jaime Harrison broke records with his third quarter fundraising. Meanwhile, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s challenger Amy McGrath raised double the amount her opponent raised with  $36.8 million compared to McConnell’s $15.6 million.

With a little more than a week left until Election Day, these Senate races are largely anyone’s game as both parties continue to push for last minute advertisements. This ‘green tsunami’ of cash does not guarantee a win for Democratic challengers, but it does show that voters are paying attention and rallying around Democrats in their states and others. In the end, money doesn't buy elections, but money does talk.