Why North Carolina’s Senate Race is the Most Important in the Country This Year

Cal Cunningham (D), left, and Thom Tillis (R) are engaged in one of the tightest - and most consequential - national Senate races this election cycle. Source.

The North Carolina senate race has emerged as one of the most contentious campaigns in the country. Many pundits believe that the race between Thom Tillis and Cal Cunningham will decide the balance of the United States Senate in 2021—a balance that is crucial if Joe Biden wins the Presidential election. The composition of the senate is especially important in light of the recent controversy over court packing; if Joe Biden wins and the Democrats control both houses of Congress, they can enact significant reforms without facing obstruction from Mitch McConnell.

One factor that makes the North Carolina senate election so important is its competitiveness. North Carolina has become a hotly contested “purple state,” as Democrats have made significant gains in cities and suburban areas and are hoping to translate those gains into success in federal elections. At the Presidential level, North Carolina is one of the tightest swing states—recent polling shows only a 4% gap between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. The senate race is similarly competitive—Cal Cunningham and Thom Tillis have polled neck and neck throughout the campaign. This is in contrast to other states with important senate races such as Arizona and Maine. In those states, the Democratic nominees are pulling away from their Republican competitors—Mark Kelly of Arizona is polling 8 points above Senator Martha McSally while Sara Gideon leads Senator Susan Collins by 8 points. North Carolina is much more competitive than any other swing senate race with the exception of Iowa, where Theresa Greenfield leads Republican incumbent Joni Ernst by 4 points in recent polls.

The composition of the US Senate is as important as the outcome of the Presidential election. If Joe Biden defeats Donald Trump, he plans to enact significant, sweeping legislation. Under current Senate rules, any legislation brought forward can be blocked if the majority party does not have at least 60 votes, as the minority party is able to filibuster said legislation, which would prevent it from being voted on. In their best-case scenario, Democrats would only hold 57 seats, which would allow Republicans to filibuster any legislation they propose. If the Democrats gain a senate majority, however, they would be able to eliminate the filibuster with a simple 51 seat majority. This would eliminate the 60-vote requirement for legislation, and Republicans would not be able to use Senate rules to obstruct legislation.

A scenario where Democrats are able to pass sweeping legislation such as a public healthcare option with only a 51-seat majority is a nightmare for Republicans. If they lose the Senate and Democrats eliminate the filibuster, they would not be able to check a Biden administration until after the 2022 midterms. Republicans therefore believe that control of the Senate is essential if they want to prevent a Biden administration from enacting its bolder legislative goals.

North Carolina, because it is so competitive, plays a central role in this calculus. In most projected scenarios, Democrats would at best hold 50 seats in the Senate if they do not win North Carolina. This would give them a slight Senate majority if Joe Biden also wins the Presidential election, as Kamala Harris would act as the tiebreaking vote, but Republicans would only need to convince one Democratic senator to break from the party line to derail any changes to the Senate rules.

North Carolina has become a must-win battleground in the fight for control of the Senate. The winning candidate’s party will very likely hold a Senate majority, and the balance of the senate will play a massive role during a Biden presidency