Is Trump Bringing any New Voters to the Table?
President Trump, in the lead-up to an election which promises to be a referendum on his leadership, struggles to bring in new voters to his coalition. Source.
After the 2016 election left voters puzzled by the outcome, the last four years have included monumental pushes to register new voters and numerous efforts to rework pre-election polling methods. Though recent FiveThirtyEight Polls project a Biden win, political pundits are advising caution as recent events may stymie that expected victory. A piece in the New York Times entitled “Meet the Supporters Trump has Lost” implies that many people proud to support Trump in 2016 are no longer voting for him. But just as much polling shows that he still has supporters, be it loyal supporters from 2016, a new bloc of supporters, or some combination. There is potential for new voters to step into the election and vote for Trump, and single issue-abortion voters are likely the biggest blocs of new Trump voters. That being said, this election appears to be the verdict in a trial against Trump, rather than an election between Trump and Biden.
A record 200 million Americans are now registered to vote, up 50 million in the last eight years. With one of the highest expected voter turnouts since 1908, and evidenced by the surge in 2018 midterm voters, this election stands to see the most eligible voters America has seen in a while. Many experts indicate that while the demographics of the evolving electorate should favor democrats, this surge in voters may favor Trump in the election.
Undecided voters will play a significant role in this election. One of the more notable polling difficulties in 2016 was the unpredictable action of undecided voters. Trump held a significant lead over Clinton among undecided voters. Polls are showing Biden is “more likable” than Clinton was, and even Trump is showing higher rates of likability than he was this time four years ago. Findings begin to suggest that this time around, Biden will have the same edge Trump had over the bloc of voters called “haters,” or those unimpressed with either candidate.
Similarly, polling errors in 2016 may be summed up to a group of people too unwilling to admit their preference for Trump. This theory is less plausible in 2020, partly because there are simply less undecided voters, but more so because most “social desirability” reasonings for supporting Trump would only exist in guaranteed Blue states, where the Trump voters would not have as significant an impact. Despite its unlikeliness, the Trump campaign is pushing this rhetoric of a silent majority, possibly a result of low polling numbers.
Recent events, notably the mishandling of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Black Lives Matter movement, and the death of Justice Ginsburg, will shape the election significantly. Many rural and/or blue-collar American’s felt the impact of coronavirus significantly and could not bear Trump’s downplaying of the virus. Biden emerged as the favored candidate when it comes to race relations and law and order issues throughout the protests this summer, and Trump’s public condemnation of the Black Lives Matter movement has not helped his public image or polling numbers.
Both of these events led to the loss of voters for Trump, the death of Justice Ginsburg and the vacant Supreme Court seat may impact Trump blocs, either in favor of or against him. Suburban women are an often contentious political voting bloc. The vacant seat could push the bloc that favored Trump in 2016 toward Biden, as suburban women come together with the hopes of securing rights granted by Roe v. Wade, which will surely be overturned if Trump wins reelection. The other alternative is that those who are single-issue voters, and their single issue is abortion, who were previously undecided or not planning to vote, will now vote for Trump to overturn Roe v. Wade. Many campaign strategists have even urged Trump to make this a campaign point, not only because it will swing voters but also because it will distract from the pandemic.