Response and Retaliation in Aftermath of Drone Strike in Iran

Iranian Gen. Qasem Soleimani’s funeral attracted millions of mourners in the Islamic Republic (Source)

A year of escalation between Iran and the United States seemingly reached the boiling point on Jan. 3 when a U.S. drone strike killed Iranian general Qasem Soleimani and nine others in his entourage, including Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, an Iraqi founder of an anti-US insurgency group.

In the immediate aftermath, reactions across the world varied largely depending on one’s perspective of the broader conflict between the two countries. While thousands of Iranians took to the streets to mourn the death of Soleimani, other Iranians expressed pleasure with his death, given his role in suppressing local dissent and promoting aggressive Iranian government policies overseas that sustain Iran’s status as a “pariah.” American opinions were just as varied, with anti-war protests held throughout the nation and college campuses denouncing the country’s continued involvement in the Middle East. Twitter users got “World War III” and “the draft” trending as they expressed fear over a potential war, while other Americans supported the strike and celebrated the death of someone who US national security officials claimed was planning an “imminent attack” against Americans. 

The tension continued on its upward trajectory in the aftermath of the attack when a day later the Iranian government vowed revenge on the United States and launched more than a dozen ballistic missiles at two U.S. military bases in Iraq, which was followed by President Trump levying further economic sanctions on multiple Iranian industries and the deployment of 3,000 additional US troops to Kuwait and Iraq.

As of now, both countries have backed down from retaliatory and violent acts, but relations between the two countries continue to erode. Domestic turmoil is brewing in Iran over the country’s responsibility for the shooting down of a Ukrainian passenger plane, and economic sanctions are still in place. Additionally, despite the buildup of U.S. forces in the region, Iraq has voted to oust U.S. troops from their country, which diminishes America’s strategic presence in the region and would fulfill one of the Iranian government’s strategic objectives— the removal of U.S. military troops from the region to give Iran greater sway and freedom of movement in neighboring countries.

While it’s near impossible to predict the military actions and reactions and troop deployments that may occur over several years in the future as a result of the most recent hostilities, what is clear is that a resolution won’t come anytime soon. Both sides are focused on outcomes that are absolutely unacceptable to the other. For Iran, that involves the removal of U.S. troops from the region. For the U.S., that involves the end of the Iranian political regime. As a result, we should expect more conflict and hostilities emanating from U.S.–Iran tensions, just as we have for the past forty years.