As the Merkel Era Ends, Germany Faces Uncertain Future

German Chancellor Angela Merkel, right, pictured with Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, Merkel’s successor as the leader of the Christian Democratic Union (Image)

It has been a decade and a half since Angela Merkel, leader of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), was sworn in as Chancellor of Germany in 2005. In that time, she has become one of the most recognizable world leaders of the modern era and a champion of the liberal order. This reputation, however, became her undoing. In the 2017 elections for the Bundestag, Germany’s main house of parliament, the right-wing populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) rose from obscurity and won 94 seats. The following year, Merkel stood down as leader of the CDU and announced plans to retire as Chancellor after the next planned general election in 2021.

Merkel’s response to the European migrant crisis has come to define her legacy. No moment encapsulates this better than mid-2015, when she stopped subjecting Syrian refugees to the Dublin Regulation. This rule imposed a number of restrictions, including requiring refugees to stay in the first EU country where they arrive. Merkel has defended this move, which allowed a large number of migrants to come to Germany, as taking pressure off Mediterranean countries and preventing possible humanitarian disaster in overcrowded and resource-strapped refugee camps. For a time, she embraced her image as a liberal internationalist. However, by 2016, a majority of Germans came to think that migration was having a negative impact on the country. While the rising refugee population likely came as a result of wider geopolitical trends rather than specific German policies, Merkel was still cast as face of the crisis. She responded to anti-migrant uproar with a variety of measures, such as the controversial Anker migrant holding centers, but this has not been enough to ward off backlash.

The AfD has brought unapologetic right-wing views back into German discourse. Since entering parliament, the party has made gains in regional elections, where it is strongest in former East German states, which still suffer from economic underdevelopment. Its appeal, however, may be limited. As the voice for right-wing populism in Germany, it fills a niche, but one that still has little mainstream support. Even at its height, the AfD has failed to break 20 percent in national polling. This, however, is not to say that the party will not have a grave impact on German politics. For one, the need to win back voters has pressured the CDU to move further right. Merkel’s policies have not been implemented without internal dispute. The debate over the migrant crisis nearly led to a split with the Christian Social Union, the party’s Bavarian branch. While Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, Merkel’s successor as CDU party leader, is generally seen as a centrist, it is unclear if she will survive an upcoming party congress, or whether a more conservative rival will replace her.

The rise of the AfD is part of a fracturing party system. The 2017 elections saw a continuation of the shaky “grand coalition” between the CDU and the center-left Social Democrats, but a number of disputes have led to speculation that the alliance might collapse before the planned 2021 elections. As of the writing of this article, both parties are in a perilous position, with the Social Democrats taking a massive dip in national polls in favor of the Green Party. Following the next election, a stable coalition government may prove near-impossible to form. Merkel’s time in power made Germany a major player on the world stage, but as her rule comes to an end, the pathway to stable leadership is unclear.